0633-2251555
The financial data of industrial enterprises recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to April, the profits of national large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with a slowdown of 0.9 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Among them, the profit growth in April was 4.2%, with a slowdown of 6.9 percentage points compared to March. Liang Jing, a researcher at the Institute of International Finance of Bank of China, said that the slowdown in industrial profit growth is mainly due to the slowdown in economic demand and non-main business income. In April, the growth rates of investment, consumption, and exports all fell, making it difficult to provide strong support for industrial production and sales. The main business income of enterprises grew by 2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 2.6 percentage points compared to March. At the same time, the driving effect of non-main business income on profits could not be sustained. The investment income of enterprises turned from an increase of 20.4% in March to a decrease of 19.8% in April; the net non-business income grew by 56.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 12.1 percentage points from the previous month. The contribution of investment income and net non-business income to the new industrial profits decreased. He Ping, the head of the Industrial Efficiency Office of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the change from an increase to a decrease in investment income has also changed the role of profit growth from a positive pull to a negative pull, causing the profit growth rate of all large-scale industrial enterprises to fall by 2.7 percentage points. In addition, Guo Lei, the chief macro analyst of Founder Securities, pointed out that there is a base effect in the slowdown of industrial enterprise profit growth in April. In April 2016, there were 20 working days, while from 2012 to 2015 there were 21 working days; however, this year's March had one more working day than the same period last year. This will lead to an overestimation of the March data and an underestimation of the April data. Many experts believe that, on the whole, the industrial enterprise efficiency data announced this time still show some positive changes. He Ping believes that the positive changes are mainly reflected in four aspects. First, the profits of industrial enterprises in April continued the growth trend since the beginning of the year. Since the beginning of this year, the profits of industrial enterprises have been increasing every month, changing the situation of profit decline in 2015. Second, the profits of high-tech manufacturing industries have grown rapidly. From January to April, the profits of high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 21.6% year-on-year, 15.1 percentage points higher than all large-scale industrial enterprises. Third, the profit decline in major raw material industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals has been somewhat reversed. Fourth, the finished product inventory showed negative growth. At the end of April, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, the first negative growth in recent years, indicating that the pressure of enterprise inventory is easing, which is conducive to the release of future enterprise capacity and the increase of production. Guo Lei said that the industries with high prosperity recently are, first, black and non-ferrous smelting, whose growth rate has turned from negative to positive, obviously benefiting from the narrowing of deflation, high operation rate in the middle stream, and changes in price expectations; second, the processing of agricultural and sideline food and food manufacturing, both of which have accelerated slightly against the trend of last month, obviously benefiting from the formation of the reflation cycle; third, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, whose growth rate has increased by 1.4 percentage points, which should be related to the high growth of new fixed asset investment projects. As for the future trend of industrial enterprise efficiency improvement, Liang Jing believes that it is still difficult to be optimistic, and it depends on policy support in the short term. The current economic downward pressure is still large, and the problem of overcapacity is still prominent, making it difficult for industrial enterprises to achieve significant improvements in profitability. Especially state-owned enterprises, which are mostly concentrated in some heavy industries and overcapacity areas, saw a year-on-year decline in profits of 7.8% from January to April, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. At the same time, the recovery of the real estate market and the rise in commodity prices are still uncertain, and the profitability of industries that have contributed more to new industrial profits in the past is not sustainable. However, the implementation of short-term policies such as cost reduction and stable growth is conducive to maintaining the stability of enterprise operating efficiency。